By Neil J Kanatt and Anshi Sancheti. Reporting by Anshi Sancheti and Neil J Kanatt in Bengaluru. Editing by Mohammed Safi Shamsi. 

September 10, 2025 - U.S. holiday sales are projected to grow at their slowest pace since the pandemic, Deloitte said in a forecast released on Wednesday, as macroeconomic uncertainties weigh on consumer spending.

Why It's Important

Holiday shopping is a critical sales driver for retailers, especially amid uncertain demand and persistent inflation, compounded by the lingering effects of U.S. President Donald Trump's volatile trade policies.

Context

Retailers, in recent weeks, have issued mixed forecasts heading into the holiday season. Target (TGT.N) and Best Buy (BBY.N) have maintained their annual forecasts, while Walmart (WMT.N)  and Macy's (M.N) have raised theirs. Toymaker Mattel (MAT.O), however, cut its forecast.

A PwC survey earlier this month predicted the steepest drop in U.S. holiday spending since the pandemic, with Gen Z shoppers among those pulling back.

Key Quotes

"Consumers may be front loading purchases again, especially if they consider tariffs and other inflationary costs," said Brian McCarthy, partner at Deloitte. "Inflation itself pushes the price of items a bit higher, so that'll manifest itself in a bit of an increase in overall holiday spend," he added. Cameron Ohlendorf, Executive Vice President of First Community Bank and Trust also added, “Consumer retail sales drive the majority of economic activity in the country. This holiday season, consumers may be pulling back as prices have risen. This affects our customers as it also means that consumers may pull back in other areas like dining, travel, and other discretionary income areas.”

By the Numbers

Sales during the November 2025-January 2026 period are expected to rise between 2.9% and 3.4%, compared with a 4.2% increase last year, Deloitte said, citing data from agencies including the United States Commerce Department and the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis.

This translates to expected holiday sales of $1.61 trillion to $1.62 trillion this year, up from $1.57 trillion in 2024.

Sales increased by 7.2% during the holiday season of 2020-2021, following a 4.9% rise in 2019-2020.

Deloitte forecasts e-commerce sales to increase between 7% and 9% during the upcoming holiday season, largely in line with last year's 8% growth, while in-store sales are projected to rise between 2% and 2.2%, a slowdown from the 3.4% growth seen a year ago.

About First Community Bank and Trust
First Community Bank and Trust is a privately-owned bank. Established in 1916 First Community Bank and Trust has been serving Beecher, IL, Peotone, IL and the surrounding communities for over 109 years. Our commitment to providing the best banking products and services is matched only by our outstanding customer service. We offer traditional community banking services, including mortgage, consumer, and commercial lending, as well as state of the art electronic banking services.

Press Contact:
Steve Koehn, Senior Vice President
First Community Bank and Trust
(708) 946-2246

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