This is the Executive Summary of U.S. Economic and Regulatory Highlights from the Experian Commercial Pulse: Small Business Insights for May 2025. For more in depth information regarding this article, download the entire report here.

• The advance estimate for Q1 2025 GDP showed the U.S. economy shrunk at an annual rate of 0.3%, a drop from the 2.4% growth recorded in Q4 and marking the first contraction since Q1 2022, as imports surged ahead of anticipated new tariffs being imposed. Q1 GDP grew 2.0% year-over-year, down from 2.5% growth in Q4 2024 and the lowest level since Q4 2022.

• April unemployment was 4.2%, remaining unchanged from the March level.

• The U.S. economy added 177K jobs in April, down from 185K in March.

• Average hourly wages continued to increase, up to $31.06 per hour in April.

• The March PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) price index showed prices increased 2.3% year-over-year, down from 2.7% in February.

• Inflation was 2.4% in March, down from 2.8% in February. Core inflation for March (excluding food and energy) was recorded at 2.8%, down from 3.1% in February, marking the lowest level since March 2021. The lower-than-expected rates of inflation in March is an indication of a slowing economy.

• Inflation details in significant sectors include:
  • Rent inflation eased to 4.0% in March, down from 4.2% in February and the lowest level since November 2021.
  • Food inflation increased to 3.0% in March, up from 2.6% in February, and was the highest level since October 2023.
  • In March, energy prices fell by 3.3% year-over-year, with gasoline and fuel oil prices dropping by 9.8% and 7.6%, respectively. However, electricity prices increased by 2.8% and natural gas costs rose by 9.4%.
• March producer price inflation was 2.7%, down from 3.2% in February and the lowest level since October 2024.
• Small Business optimism declined to 97.4 in March, down from 100.7 in February and the lowest level since October 2024. The 3.3 point drop in March brought the index below the 51-year average of 98 for the first time since October 2024.

• Consumer sentiment was 52.2 in April, down from 57.0 in March and 32% lower than a year ago. It was the fourth consecutive monthly drop and reached the lowest level since July 2022.

• In the week ending 04/26/25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims was 241,000, up 18K from the prior week. The 4-week moving average was 226,000, up 5.5K from the prior week and an increase of 7.5% from a year ago.

• The average cost of regular and diesel fuel trended down in the last month. Compared to a year ago, prices for regular and diesel fuel are 13% and 11% lower, respectively.

• The average 30-year mortgage rate was 6.76% for the week ending 05/01/25, down slightly from 6.81% the prior week.

• Existing home sales were 4.02MM in March, down from 4.27MM in February and the lowest level since October 2024.

For more in depth information regarding this article, download the entire report here.

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About First Community Bank and Trust
First Community Bank and Trust is a privately-owned bank. Established in 1916 First Community Bank and Trust has been serving Beecher, IL, Peotone, IL and the surrounding communities for over 109 years. Our commitment to providing the best banking products and services is matched only by our outstanding customer service. We offer traditional community banking services, including mortgage, consumer, and commercial lending, as well as state of the art electronic banking services.

Press Contact:
Steve Koehn, Senior Vice President
First Community Bank and Trust
(708) 946-2246

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