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Economic Outlook U.S. Q2 2026: Curb Your Enthusiasm

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Economic Outlook U.S. Q2 2026: Curb Your Enthusiasm

Posted On: April 17, 2026 by First Community Bank and Trust in: Commercial Loans, Community Banking, Community Banking Advocacy, Community News, General

This article was originally published in S&P Global on March 25, 2026 and has been shortened. After a strong start to the year, the U.S. economic picture has grown more complicated. Growth remains positive, but a number of headwinds — most notably the escalating conflict in the Middle East — have tempered earlier optimism. Growth Still Positive, but Slower Ahead S&P now forecasts U.S. GDP growth of 2.2% for 2026, followed by an average of 1.9% annually through 2029. That's a downward revision from where expectations stood just a few months ago, driven largely by geopolitical uncertainty and an oil supply shock stemming from the Middle East conflict. Inflation to Spike, but Potentially Briefly One of the more notable near-term concerns is inflation. S&P's Chief Economist for the U.S. and Canada noted that the recent oil shock could push headline inflation toward 4% in the short term, though core inflation is expected to rise only moderately — to around

Economic Outlook U.S. Q2 2026: Curb Your Enthusiasm